Marc Stein reported that the Thunder and Mavericks “have discussed a potential swap of No. 9 to the Thunder for the Nos. 12 and 17 picks.” That isn’t some wild rumor. It’s actually a pretty logical conversation given where both franchises are right now.
The Thunder aren’t rebuilding anymore, and that changes everything about how they should be thinking. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander signed a four-year, $285.0 million extension. Chet Holmgren signed a five-year deal worth up to $250.0 million. Jalen Williams signed a five-year rookie max that could reach $287.0 million. That’s what happens when you draft too well for too long, and it’s a good problem to have, but it’s still a problem.
The Aaron Wiggins trade spelled out the plan pretty clearly. The Thunder moved Wiggins to the Hawks for two future second-round picks, and ESPN reported the move cut their projected luxury tax bill from $213.0 million to $152.0 million. That’s a $61.0 million drop from moving one rotation guard who averaged 9.4 points and played 5.8 minutes per game in the playoffs. If they’re willing to do that with a proven 27-year-old, keeping two first-round rookies at No. 12 and No. 17 just because they have them starts to feel pretty weird.
The Mavericks are in an opposite situation. They went 26-56, hired Masai Ujiri as team president, fired Jason Kidd, and are still figuring out what the roster around Cooper Flagg is supposed to look like.
Flagg already won Rookie of the Year after averaging 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.2 steals, including becoming the youngest player ever to score 50 points in an NBA game. The star piece is there. Now they need to build around him, and they need multiple shots to do it.
The Trade Framework
Thunder Receive: No. 9 pick
Mavericks Receive: No. 12 pick, No. 17 pick
This one is simple because there’s no salary matching involved at all. It’s just picks, which makes the whole thing a lot easier to actually get done.
The Thunder move two first-rounders for one better first-rounder. The Mavericks move down three spots and pick up an extra first in the same draft. Nobody needs salary filler, nobody needs to attach a bad contract to make it work.
The rookie scale numbers matter, though. The No. 9 pick carries a first-year scale salary of $5.2 million before the standard signing bump. The No. 12 pick is at $4.5 million, and No. 17 is at $3.5 million. So the Thunder go from two rookie contracts to one, which isn’t nothing for a team that just moved Wiggins specifically to cut their tax bill. It also clears a roster spot, which matters more than people realize when you’re already this deep.
For the Mavericks, it’s the exact opposite math. They can afford more young contracts because they aren’t trying to win a championship this season. They need volume, options, and chances. Two first-rounders give them more of all three.
Why The Thunder Do It
The Thunder accept because they need precision way more than they need volume right now, and that’s a genuine concern for a team that will be buried deep into the apron restrictions.
They had the best record in the league at 64-18 and reached the Western Conference Finals. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 6.6 assists while shooting 55.3% from the field and 38.6% from three. Holmgren and Williams aren’t cheap young players with upside anymore. They’re max contract guys with enormous salaries, and that fundamentally changes how the roster has to be built around them.
The Wiggins move already showed the thinking. He wasn’t bad. He wasn’t washed. He was a useful player on a normal contract, and they still moved him because the roster is too crowded and too expensive. If that’s the approach with a proven rotation piece, then holding onto No. 12 and No. 17 just for the sake of having picks doesn’t really fit the same logic.
The Thunder don’t need more bodies. They need one player who has a genuine chance to crack the long-term playoff rotation, and No. 9 gives them a better shot at finding that guy than hoping he falls to No. 12. The gap between those two spots isn’t massive, but it absolutely can matter if there’s one specific player they love. Moving up three spots means they can stop hoping their guy slips and just go get him.
This is honestly how good teams should use picks. Not just drafting because they own the selections, but packaging them to target the exact player that fits what they’re building.
Who The Thunder Should Draft
If the Thunder get to No. 9, Brayden Burries should be the first name on the board if he’s still there.
Burries averaged 16.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.5 steals at Arizona while shooting 49.1% from the field, 39.1% from three, and 80.5% from the line. That’s a genuinely strong guard profile, not just combine hype or projection based on athleticism. NBA.com’s consensus mock had him as the most common projection at No. 9 to the Mavericks, which is exactly why moving up makes sense. If the Thunder sit at No. 12, he’s potentially gone.
Burries at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds doesn’t need to dominate the ball to be useful, and that matters a lot for where he’s going. The Thunder already have Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic, and Jared McCain. They don’t need a guard who requires 25% usage from day one. They need someone who can defend, shoot, attack closeouts, and grow into a role without everything being designed around him. Burries fits that description pretty well.
Karim Lopez is the other real option. There was mock chatter connecting the Thunder to Lopez at No. 12, and the fit makes sense there, too. He measured 6-foot-8.25 barefoot with a 6-foot-11.5 wingspan and a 38-inch max vertical, and he gives them more wing size, transition ability, and defensive tools. But at No. 9, Burries is the upside pick. The shooting is more proven, the college production is more consistent, and the Thunder can use another guard who plays with real toughness.
Why The Mavericks Do It
The Mavericks accept because two rookies can genuinely help them more than one right now, and that’s actually a pretty easy argument to make given where they are.
This isn’t a team with one small hole in an otherwise complete roster. They went 26-56. Ujiri just took over, the coaching staff got overhauled with Dusty May’s signing, and the direction around Flagg still isn’t fully settled. In that context, this offseason is way more about building a foundation than chasing one perfect pick at No. 9.
Flagg already gives them the star. Turning No. 9 into No. 12 and No. 17 gives the Mavericks two more shots to find pieces around him, and that flexibility is genuinely valuable for a front office that’s still figuring out what the roster is supposed to look like. They can draft one wing and one big man. One connector and one shooter. Or draft one player and use the other pick in a separate trade down the line. Ujiri has always been good at maximizing that kind of optionality.
The risk is obvious. If Burries goes to the Thunder at No. 9 and becomes a real player while both Mavericks picks become role players, this looks bad. But that only becomes a real problem if Ujiri sees a clear talent drop after No. 9. If the board is relatively flat in that range, which it very well might be, moving down and adding a pick is the smarter play for a team that needs volume right now.
Who The Mavericks Should Draft
If the Mavericks end up with No. 12 and No. 17, the best version of those picks is Lopez and Cameron Carr.
Lopez at No. 12 makes sense because he gives them another big wing to develop alongside Flagg. He isn’t a finished shooter yet, only 32.2% from three, but he averaged 11.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.0 blocks in 25.6 minutes while shooting 49.4% from the field, and the size and defensive tools are genuinely there.
At No. 17, Carr is the upside scoring guard who makes a lot of sense if he is still there. He averaged 18.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists for Baylor while shooting 37.4% from three. He is also 6’5″ with a 7’1″ wingspan, so this isn’t just another small scorer. The shot-making and athletic tools are real, and he helped himself at the NBA Draft Combine with a 30-point scrimmage on 50.0% shooting, including 6-of-12 from three.
Carr is more aggressive as a scorer than Lopez, and that is why the pairing works. Lopez gives the Mavericks size, defense, and transition play. Carr gives them shooting, slashing, and another player who can attack a closeout next to Flagg. The Mavericks were 26-56, so they shouldn’t be scared of taking two wings. They need talent and size everywhere.
If the Mavericks want a safer connector option at No. 12, Yaxel Lendeborg is worth a serious look, too. He averaged 15.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists while shooting 51.5% from the field for Michigan, and NBA.com’s consensus mock had him as the most common projection at No. 12. But if the goal is upside and fit around Flagg, Lopez and Carr is the more interesting combination.
Final Verdict
This deal works because the Thunder and Mavericks genuinely need opposite things right now, and that’s the best possible starting point for a trade.
The Thunder need fewer contracts and better precision. They already moved Wiggins to save $61.0 million in tax money and open a roster spot. Adding No. 12 and No. 17 just because they own both picks goes against everything that move was trying to accomplish. One better rookie at No. 9 fits the plan. Burries would be the ideal target. Lopez is the bigger wing swing. Either way the logic is the same: one cleaner pick instead of two extra ones.
The Mavericks need volume and flexibility. They have Flagg, but they still won only 26 games and have a lot of roster building ahead of them. No. 12 and No. 17 give Ujiri more ways to build around the Rookie of the Year, and that matters a lot for a front office that’s still in the early stages of figuring out what this team is supposed to become.
It isn’t a loud trade. Nobody’s going to be talking about it at the top of draft night. But it makes real sense for both sides, and those are usually the deals that actually get done.
