As the clock ticks closer toward the NBA Draft on Tuesday, rival executives expect that also will coincide with the Milwaukee Bucks dealing All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Those around the league believe that the Bucks will deal Antetokounmpo to the Miami Heat for a package that includes Tyler Herro, young players and draft picks. There remains skepticism the Boston Celtics would acquire Antetokounmpo amid refusal to include All-Star guard Jaylen Brown as the centerpiece of any trade.
But even if this outcome seems inevitable, Antetokounmpo sparks concern around the league with his fit in Miami and his injury history. The Milwaukee Bucks missed the playoffs last season partly because Antetokounmpo missed a combined 46 regular-season games with issues involving his right calf and left knee.
Fadeaway World spoke to a rival NBA executive, assistant coach and scout for more perspective on their outlook on Antetokounmpo’s future and their concerns about his fit and health.
Editor’s note: The following interviews were conducted separately and are edited for clarity. They were all granted anonymity because they are not authorized to talk publicly about the other teams’ players.
Where do you think Giannis plays next season?
NBA executive: “What you’re reading is true that it’s between Miami and Boston. Don’t expect any surprise teams or anything of that nature. I think they’re all out – Minnesota, Portland and the Lakers. I think the Bucks have an internal deadline, but it’s not clear when that it is. It might be before the Draft. But there has been a lot of speculation on that in the past as well.
One of the challenges is that ownership has set the expectation that more and better deals would come before the Draft and the offseason. But that has been the inverse of what’s happened. I think part of it is how good OKC and San Antonio is. Who is good enough to add Giannis and contend just from that?”
NBA assistant coach: “I’m not really sure about that one. As hard as he plays, he’s obviously a great competitor. But it’s a difficult thing for him to go somewhere else and not be the franchise player. He’s not a skilled player. He’s not like LeBron [James] where he’s smart enough and savvy enough to go anywhere and make it work.”
NBA scout: “I think Giannis ends up in Miami. I’d be surprised if he didn’t. I’ve heard that’s what he and his family want. They want warm weather in a big market. If there was a way to force their way to the Lakers, they would do that. But I don’t think that’s possible.
I see the Boston stuff, but I don’t see that happening. Miami was very close with having a deal done at the trade deadline and then the Bucks went quiet on them. They did that to Golden State, too. Giannis thought he was going to Miami. So I think they’ll be able to get it done. Milwaukee knows it’s in a rebuild. No matter what they do, they’re not going to contend for a title, no matter what they get. But Milwaukee isn’t any good. They’re terrible even with Giannis.
What do you think is the best fit for Giannis?
NBA executive: “Miami has the best package. But the problem is that we’re seeing a little bit of a change where depth is a premium. You have to have depth in order to win on top of high-end talent. So it’s wherever he can get high-end talent to play with and have depth. Take a team like Boston. They would have to get rid of Jaylen Brown and maybe Derrick White to avoid second-apron issues. So where is your depth? The high end with [Jayson] Tatum and Giannis is amazing. But then you don’t have any depth. Boston was really great in the regular season and then flamed out in the first round. They didn’t have great depth.”
NBA assistant coach: “Giannis is different. He can’t shoot. His game is based on physicality. He’s great at that, obviously. He plays hard and plays to win. But it’s tricky. When you look at all of the teams that have tried to combine talent, go down the line. It’s really tricky to make it work.”
NBA scout: “I’m skeptical the Celtics would trade Jaylen. They really overachieved when Tatum was out with his injury. Their window will still be open. The core in Miami would be Bam and Giannis. Tyler would have to be part of the deal and some of their young guys. Miami thinks it needs him. But I think it’s limited.
You have great size. You have an incredible defender in Bam [Adebayo], but he’s limited offensively, his record game notwithstanding. You have to put all sorts of shooting around both of them. Duncan Robinson is gone. They would lose Tyler. I don’t think it’s an easy fix. That’s why you have OKC and San Antonio going far. They got depth and they got youth.”
To what extent should Giannis’ recent injuries give teams pause?
NBA executive: “His number is big, and availability has been an issue. He has a playstyle that is not going to fit with a lot of teams. You’ll have to give him an extension as soon as you get him. He’s going to be making $70 million in his mid-30s. That’s a big commitment. They didn’t make the playoffs last season, let alone contend. So you are going to give up your future? Also, he hasn’t been available. Are you also going to give his brother a roster spot?”
NBA assistant coach: “That’s the thing. The Orlando Magic are going to trade one of their young studs for an aging Giannis with no skill? That would be crazy to me. With Jaylen, I can see it if he’s over it. If he’s disgruntled, maybe the Celtics decide they’ll make it work. But if Jaylen Brown is happy with where he’s at, I’m not doing that deal.
Miami makes sense. If he goes there, he is their best player. If he goes somewhere where he’s not the best player, I don’t know if you can make that work. I don’t see Tatum and Giannis being a high-functioning duo. I think it would be hard to do.”
NBA scout: “It’s not just his injury history. It’s the type of player that he is. He’s at or beyond his peak. He’s still definitely a big-time transition threat. But he can’t shoot. He’s relatively easy to gameplan for, especially in a playoff series. They won a title five years ago. But to me, that is not someone personally that’d I be chasing. I understand it. I know why teams are doing it.
They’re looking at how you’re going to beat San Antonio, Oklahoma City or Houston. You need a guy like that, I guess. But to me, he’s just fine. He’s an All-Star. But is he still an MVP-level player? Is he a max player? In the market, yes. But watching him, I don’t think so. I understand why teams feel they need to go for him. But I’d rather add a couple of guys.”
Mark Medina is an NBA contributor to Fadeaway World. Follow him on X, Blue Sky, Instagram, Facebook and Threads.
