NBA free agency started with a huge hit right away when LeBron James told the Lakers he was leaving, and that alone makes this offseason feel crazy already. He spent eight seasons with the Lakers, won the 2020 title there, played with Bronny James, passed almost every old record possible, and now he is gone.
At 41, he still averaged 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.5 steals last season, so this is not something to take lightly. It is LeBron leaving the Lakers. That is always giant, and more so with the Warriors rumors swirling around, growing larger every day.
But free agency didn’t start from zero. The league was already on fire before the market even opened. Giannis Antetokounmpo was traded to the Heat, Ja Morant was sent to the Blazers, and Kawhi Leonard went back to the Raptors. These are franchise-changing moves that will make this summer one of the most remembered periods in NBA offseason history, if that even exists.
They change the East, they change the West, and they change the pressure on every other contender.
The Doncic trade still feels like the monster move of this new NBA era, but the Giannis trade is right there now. The Heat finally got a superstar, and they have wanted one for years. The Raptors brought back the player who gave them their only championship, while the Blazers took a big swing after finally getting back to the playoffs. Some teams are acting like they want to win right now. Others… might be in a different position as Free Agency starts to take shape.
So, yes, it is early. Day 1 winners and losers can look different in two weeks. A team can miss on one player and still save the summer with one trade. But first reactions are also important to set the tone. They show who has direction, who has pressure, and who is already bleeding.
Here are the biggest winners and losers of NBA free agency so far.
Winners
3. Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are one of the early winners because they got Ja Morant for a price that feels almost impossible to believe. They sent Jerami Grant and Kris Murray to the Grizzlies and did not have to include first-round picks in the deal, which is crazy no matter how low Morant’s value was. For a two-time All-Star guard, that is very cheap. Very, very cheap.
There is risk, of course. Morant is not coming after a great season. He played only 20 games last season and averaged 19.5 points, 8.1 assists, and 3.3 rebounds while shooting 41.0% from the field. His three-point shot was ugly, with 23.5% from deep. You can understand the Grizzlies were done with the situation, and the Blazers jumped at the chance.
But even with all that, this is still a big talent win. Morant is 26. His career numbers are 22.4 points, 7.4 assists, and 4.6 rebounds. He is still under contract for two more seasons, with $42.17 million in 2026-27 and $44.89 million in 2027-28. That is expensive, but not insane for a lead guard with some heavy star history.
The Blazers were 42-40 last season, finished eighth in the West, won their Play-In game, and lost to the Spurs in five games in the First Round. That’s a step forward for a team already making progress. They were already a playoff team with Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan, Jrue Holiday, Robert Williams III, and Damian Lillard around the roster, even with Lillard missing the year.
Morant gives them something they couldn’t find last season: rim pressure from the guard spot. The Blazers had good pieces, and Avdija played like a superstar, but they still needed someone in the backcourt to be more creative. Morant can do that. He gets into the paint, forces help, creates corner threes, and makes centers step up. That changes the whole offense if he is locked in.
The best part is that the Blazers still have room to do more. Since they didn’t empty the pick cabinet, or move every young player, or trade three first-round picks for a distressed star, the Blazers might very well find themselves in the push for another star like Jaylen Brown, which would break the league at that point.
This is why Portland is a winner for now. The move can blow up later if Morant is hurt, inefficient, or not serious. That is real. But Day 1 is about value and direction. The Blazers got upside at a discount, and now they look aggressive again after years of being stuck in the middle.
2. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are a winner because Kawhi Leonard is back. That sentence alone is enough for the fan base. It’s not just nostalgia either. It is not only about 2019, the shot against the 76ers, the Finals, and the parade. This is also about the Raptors getting a real top-end playoff scorer after they already built a deep team.
The price was high. The Raptors reportedly sent Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two first-round picks, a first-round pick swap, and two second-round picks to the Clippers. That is not light. Ingram was an All-Star-level scorer for the Raptors, and Dick was still a young shooter with value, even if he was left out of the rotation.
But Leonard was awesome last season. He averaged a career-high 27.9 points per game and made the All-NBA Second Team. At 35, that is crazy production. The injury history is always part of the conversation because he played only 331 of 554 games across his Clippers years, but the player is still elite when he is on the floor.
The Raptors finished 46-36, got the fifth seed in the East, and lost to the Cavaliers in seven games in the First Round. So this is not a random rebuilding team trying to make a desperate move. They were close enough to believe in a bigger swing.
They already have Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley for creation, RJ Barrett for pressure and size, Jakob Poeltl for screens, rebounding and defensive structure, and Collin Murray-Boyles as another forward body. Now, with Leonard, they finally have a real late-clock star who can get a bucket when it matters.
The biggest difference is that in the playoffs, the Raptors didn’t just need another good player. They needed the guy who can take the ball with eight seconds left and still get to his spot. Leonard is that guy. He’s not as fast as he used to be, but he’s still strong, balanced, and elite at getting to his midrange spots. He punishes switches, can shoot over smaller wings, and he can defend the matchup that decides a series.
Leonard can become the biggest Raptor ever if this second run goes well. Kyle Lowry has the long-term story, and he will always have that place. But Leonard already gave the Raptors their title. If he comes back, wins more playoff rounds, and maybe gives them another Finals run, the argument gets very serious.
The Raptors also look complete on paper. Quickley, Barrett, Leonard, Barnes, and Poeltl is a strong starting five. There is size, defense, passing, slashing, and enough shooting if Quickley and Leonard stay healthy. The bench still needs some work, but the base is very strong.
This trade was expensive, and it might look even worse if Leonard misses time. But the Raptors were never going to win the East by playing it safe. The Knicks are the champs, the Heat have Giannis, the Celtics still have Jayson Tatum and maybe Brown for now, and the Cavaliers are still good. Toronto needed a real punch. They got it.
1. Miami Heat
The Heat are the biggest winners here because they actually got Giannis. That’s pretty much the whole story. For years, it felt like the Heat were always close but never quite got there. Every summer, there was noise about Donovan Mitchell, Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard, Giannis… someone. It always seemed like they were one big move away, but it never happened. Now they finally landed the real deal.
Giannis averaged 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists last season while shooting 62.4% from the field. He only played 36 games, so the health stuff is obviously important. But when he was on the floor, he was still a problem. He lived in the paint, forced double teams, and created free throws, transition chances, and defensive chaos.
The price was high. Miami moved Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, and Kasparas Jakucionis. Herro is not nothing, though: he put up 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on 48% shooting and 37.8% from three. That’s a real scorer and a real contract. But come on… It’s Giannis. You make that trade every single time.
The Heat roster still isn’t perfect, which is why this isn’t some automatic title team. They still need more shooting and another playmaker. Bam and Giannis together are nasty on defense, but the spacing can get tight. Andrew Wiggins staying on that three-year, $64 million deal helps because he brings wing defense and some scoring (15.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists on 47.5% shooting), but he’s not a pure spacer either.
Still, the Heat finally have the kind of superstar that actually changes the landscape. Giannis makes average teams dangerous and good teams scary. When he’s healthy, he’s a top-5 player, and those guys almost never get moved. The Heat weren’t going to build a real contender just by adding solid role players and hoping Erik Spoelstra out-coaches everyone. They needed force. They needed pressure. Giannis gives them that.
This also gets them out of that annoying spot they’ve been in for years, where they were good enough to be taken seriously, but not talented enough to be the favorite. Now they have a real identity. It’s Giannis, Bam, Spoelstra, Wiggins, and whatever shooting they can add around them.
The trade is right up there with the Luka deal as one of the biggest moves in recent years. Maybe the Luka trade was bigger because he’s younger and was already dropping 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 7.7 assists. But Giannis to the Heat is still a massive shock.
The Heat won the sweepstakes. They got the player. They raised their ceiling in one move. That’s why they’re number one.
Losers
3. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are one of the early losers here, and it’s mostly because of the Jaylen Brown situation. They tried to move him, they missed on Giannis, and now it feels like the relationship is damaged.
Brown is not some random All-Star. He’s a former Finals MVP and just dropped 28.7 points per game, which was fourth in the league. When you shop a player like that and don’t land the superstar you were chasing, it usually leaves some damage. That’s the spot Boston is in right now.
They still have Jayson Tatum, so it’s not a total disaster. With Tatum, they’re never completely dead. But the Brown thing can mess up the whole offseason if they don’t fix it. A star who knows he was offered around the league is not easy to keep happy, especially when the target was Giannis and it didn’t happen.
The Celtics had a reason to look. Giannis is Giannis. In his situation, most teams with any kind of path were going to at least check. Brown is really good, but Giannis moves the needle at another level. The problem is what happened after. The Heat got Giannis. The Raptors got Kawhi. The Knicks are still the champs. The Cavaliers are still chasing LeBron. The East got tougher, and Boston might have made their own locker room more complicated in the process.
There’s also the asset side. Brown can still bring back a good package because he’s in his prime and just put up big numbers. But once the league knows a player might be unhappy, the value changes, and as Bobby Marks remarked, one GM reportedly said Brown was seen as a 7th-best player on a team. Now teams get patient, offer less, and ask for more protection on picks. The Celtics can still get something decent, but it’s not as huge as it looked before.
The Blazers have been mentioned as a team that could still be interested after the Morant move, and on paper, it kind of makes sense. Brown next to Morant, Avdija, Sharpe, and Clingan would be a weird but interesting group. For Boston, though, that kind of deal would basically mean accepting they’re starting over with younger pieces and picks instead of staying in true title contention right now.
That’s why Boston is a loser so far. They didn’t actually lose a player yet, but they lost control of the story. They went after Giannis, didn’t get him, and now Brown might not want to come back anymore. Not the best way to start the offseason.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are one of the clearest losers so far, and it’s pretty simple. They lost LeBron James. You can talk about signings and rumors all you want, but that’s the main thing. LeBron is gone.
They still have Luka Doncic, and that keeps them from being a total disaster. He put up 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists last season, so this is not a rebuild. They have a guy who can win MVP and carry an offense by himself.
But losing LeBron still changes a lot. He was still their veteran star, still putting up 20 points and 7 assists, and still someone defenses respected in the playoffs. He was also the guy who could slow the game down in the playoffs without Doncic, and that kind of presence is not something you replace that easily.
They also missed out on some useful players early. Luke Kennard went to the Suns, which hurts their shooting. Marcus Smart is going to the Rockets. Deandre Ayton is not really the type of center that fits best with Luka, so that position is still a problem. Rui Hachimura could also be gone, and that takes away more size and scoring from the forward spot.
To be fair, they are trying. There are reports they’re close to deals with Quentin Grimes and Sandro Mamukelashvili, and they’ve been linked hard to Walker Kessler and Jalen Duren. Kessler looks like their top center target, and Duren already had a good meeting with them.
Grimes would help because he brings defense and shooting next to Luka. Mamukelashvili gives them a skilled big man. Kessler or Duren would be even better since Luka needs a vertical center who can screen, roll, catch lobs, rebound, and protect the rim.
But right now, none of it feels like a big win. It feels more like they’re trying to patch things up after losing one of the best players ever. That’s not the same as building something that actually scares other teams.
The tough part is that the Lakers are not bad. They still have Luka and Austin Reaves long-term. They still have the market and the brand. But on Day 1, the first big movement was brutal. LeBron left. Now everything else they do has to be close to perfect just to make the team feel okay again.
They might still turn it around if they land Kessler or Duren and close the Grimes deal. But right now, after losing LeBron, they’re one of the biggest losers. It’s simple. And most likely, their final roster won’t look as good as last season’s team.
1. Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are the biggest losers by a decent margin because they lost Giannis, and nothing else really comes close. The Lakers lost LeBron at 41, but the Bucks just lost the best player in franchise history while he was still averaging 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists. That hurts on a different level.
Giannis basically was the Bucks. He delivered the 2021 title, won Finals MVP, and for years gave them 50-win expectations, national TV games, real playoff hope, and league-wide respect. Now he’s gone, and the team is in a really tough spot.
They were already not in a good place last season. The Bucks finished 32-50, 11th in the East, with a minus-6.1 point differential. They missed the playoffs, and the old core around Giannis had been falling apart for a while. Damian Lillard was already off the opening day roster, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez were gone too, and the supporting cast just kept getting weaker.
Now they’re basically in rebuild mode, but without controlling their own draft picks in the near future, they can’t just completely tank and find two top-five prospects in the Draft. They are likely headed towards the “no man’s land” away from the play-in, but not in the race for the No. 1 pick either.
They did get some assets back, but the problem is that a lot of them don’t really fit what the Bucks need right now. Tyler Herro is the biggest name in the return, and he’s a good player. But there are already reports that the Bucks are open to moving him, which kind of tells you everything. Herro is more valuable to a team that’s trying to compete than to a team that’s starting over.
That’s the ugly part. The Bucks aren’t just worse, they’re kind of stuck in between. If they keep Herro, they might win too many games but still not be good enough to do anything. If they trade him, they need to get the right picks back. If they hold onto veterans, they slow down the rebuild. If they sell everything, they risk being bad for a long time without reward. There’s no easy path forward.
Losing Giannis also hurts the franchise identity in a big way. Some teams lose stars and move on pretty easily because the player wasn’t there that long. This is different. Giannis spent 13 seasons in Milwaukee. He became an MVP there, won a championship there, and became the face of the whole organization. Losing him isn’t just a basketball hit, it’s a full reset.
The Bucks also don’t have the same kind of appeal as some other teams when it comes to free agency. The Heat can sell culture and the market. The Lakers have Luka and Los Angeles. The Raptors just sold Kawhi on coming back. The Bucks have to build through the draft, patience, and smart trades. That can work, but it usually takes time. A lot of time.
The next few years could be rough. Not forever, because things in the NBA can change fast, but right now they look like a team heading into a dark stretch. They moved the most important player in franchise history, got back pieces they might not even want to keep, and now have to convince fans that this is the beginning of something better.
Maybe in five years, the return looks smarter. Maybe Herro becomes a useful trade chip. Maybe some of the young players develop and the picks turn into something. But on Day 1, no team lost more than the Bucks. The Heat got Giannis. The Bucks lost him. That pretty much sums up the whole winner and loser picture.
